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Lesson 3: How to Read the Weekend Market Comment

The 100 series now is just three vital graphs, answering two core questions. The Bull Bear Lines tell you if you should be in the market at all and chart 103 NYSE 52 Week High Low Market Forces, with chart 105 Aggressive Defensive, answer the question -- should you be aggressive or cautious.   

The 200 series are my old favourites that look at some market internals. Technical Analysis is more like a barometer, falling pressure can alert you to coming problems.    By viewing these each week I get a feel for what is underlying the market. The human side of Technical Analysis, is often based on hunches and feelings. 

The 300 series are market segments. International vs domestic, bonds vs equities, gold and commodities. This gives you a clue as to what market areas are doing well now. 

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Lesson 1: The Bull and Bear Lines – for Phil

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Lesson 2: How I View the Markets

In order to understand the point of the Market Comment, you really must understand what the author believes about the market. These I believe are the fundamental truths. More importantly, they are the creed of my investing philosophy. To put it another way, this is how I think it all works.

Basic Belief 1: The Stock Market is the Best Investment
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Here is what $100 in 1926 would grow to:


Basic Belief 2: The Power of Co…

Lesson 9: Playing the Odds

So you want to know how I am trading and profitable after 30 years and many are not? Learning that sometimes thing work in the markets and that sometimes they don't but that's has NOTHING to do with good and bad trading. What counts is executing the high probability action.

Take a moment and contemplate this:
There is a sign in a collection agency it says;
"Winning is a just a matter of luck, ask any loser".


You see this in poker, sometimes you do the odds and realize you are probably up against a better hand and you fold. Sometimes it turns out you were bluffed and that hurts, but in the long run if you played correctly over many games you will overall win.  The poker hand pictured above is 7 2 off suit, general thought to be the worst hand in poker. However if per chance the community cards come up as 7 7 7 2 2 you have one of the most unbeatable hands possible.  Just because you won once playing 7 2 does not make it a good hand to play. In fact play it lon…